New analysis released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) has revealed that urban last-mile delivery emissions are on track to increase by more than 30% by 2030 in the top 100 cities globally.
The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem analysis suggests that growing demand for e-commerce delivery will result in 36% increase in the number of delivery vehicles in inner cities by 2030, leading to a rise in both emissions and traffic congestion, without effective intervention.
Without intervention, emissions could reach 25 million tons of CO2 emitted annually by 2030. Along with increased carbon emissions, traffic congestion is expected to rise by over 21%, the equivalent of adding 11 minutes to each passenger’s daily commute.
The analysis from WEF identifies and prioritizes 24 interventions to combat these trends, including greener vehicle choices, dynamic rerouting, and the use of automated robots.
“Consumer demand for the convenience of online shopping and fast delivery is rising rapidly and companies are struggling to meet this demand with sustainable delivery options,” said Christoph Wolff, head of mobility industries and system initiative, World Economic Forum.
“Rising congestion and emissions from e-commerce delivery are already putting stress on city traffic patterns and this pressure will only rise from growing demand unless effective intervention is quickly taken by both cities and companies.”
The best results from the model involve companies, regulators, drivers and citizens contributing to the ecosystem and changing their behavior.
More interventions and outcomes can be found in the report.