Despite geopolitical tensions and concerns about widespread tariff increases, global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient and this pattern is likely to continue even as the USA begins a campaign of tariff increases, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
The report, published by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business, provides a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade with data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
Faster trade growth compared to the previous decade
According to the Trade Atlas 2025, recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029 – roughly aligning with GDP growth and representing modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new US administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years, albeit at a much slower pace.
“The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals highly encouraging insights,” commented John Pearson, CEO DHL Express. “There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. In today’s global business landscape, DHL can assist customers in reevaluating their supply chains by establishing a balanced approach between cost and risk, ensuring they are both efficient and secure.”
New leaders in trade growth
The Trade Atlas 2025 highlighted four countries that are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the USA (10%). The countries expected to deliver the most absolute trade growth are spread across Asia, Europe and North America. At the same time, the countries with the fastest projected trade growth also include several in Africa and Latin America.
At the level of major world regions, the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the ASEAN countries, with compound annual growth rates between 5% and 6%. All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
New record in long-distance trade
Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 shows that trade has not become more regionalized overall. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000km, while the share of trade within major regions fell to a new low of 51%.
Reasons for optimism
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 outlines several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive US trade policies. Most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and US trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. Also, many of Trump’s tariff threats may end up different to how they were originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation. Moreover, the US share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for US policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
Steven Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, said, “While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies. While the US could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
For more information on the Trade Atlas 2025, click here.