According to DHL’s new Global Connectedness Tracker, released on November 19 in partnership with New York University’s Stern School of Business, globalization remains at a record level (25%) highlighting the resilience of international flows in the face of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. This level also indicates that, despite decades of globalization, the world is far from being completely connected.
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker measures international relative to domestic activity on a spectrum from 0% to 100%. It features tools that allow users to examine trends by region, by geopolitical alignment and for individual countries. It also supports data and chart downloads for offline analysis and sharing.
Central pillar of the world economy
John Pearson, CEO DHL Express, commented, “The Global Connectedness Tracker shows that there are still countless opportunities for countries and businesses to expand their markets across the globe. While the outlines of this complex landscape remain in flux, the fundamental drivers and benefits of international engagement endure. Global trade enhances international exchange and fosters opportunities to empower individuals, businesses and allows entire nations to flourish.”
According to DHL, the latest data underscores the crucial role of global trade. In 2023, 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world was traded internationally – just shy of the all-time high of 22% first reached in 2008 and matched in 2022.
Trade shifts
Ties between the USA and China continue to diminish, with direct trade between the two countries falling from 3.5% of global goods trade in 2016 to 2.6% in 2024 (January to July). At the same time, these numbers reflect that direct trade between the USA and China accounts for only a small part of world trade.
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker also reveals that “unaligned” countries that are neither close allies of the USA nor of China are conducting a growing share of world trade, developing new roles as connecting economies bridging geopolitical rivals. The share of trade involving countries that are not close allies of either superpower rose from 42% in 2016 to 47% in 2024, with the United Arab Emirates, India, Vietnam, Brazil and Mexico seeing especially large trade share gains over this period.
Impact of US tariffs
Given a potential for tariff increases on US imports and possible new trade conflicts after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, DHL says the analysis suggests caution regarding predictions that such developments would reverse globalization. It is noted that, while actual policy changes in the USA remain uncertain, international trade has remained resilient through Brexit, the USA-China trade war, the Covid pandemic and conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
“In turbulent times, it is essential to look beyond the political crossfire about globalization to make informed decisions based on how international flows are actually developing,” said Steven A. Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
“While there is no guarantee that the recent resilience of global flows will continue, it highlights how companies and countries often find creative ways to preserve benefits they derive from globalization. As long as markets stay connected, a company that unilaterally retreats from globalization can put its competitive position at risk.”
The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker
Regularly updated, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker is a new extension to the renowned DHL Global Connectedness Report which has been published regularly since 2011. The November 2024 version of the Tracker analyzes more than eight million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It includes a powerful data tool that enables customized deep dives into the state of globalization and global trade, offering interactive online charts and download options. The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker is commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A Altman and Caroline R Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business.